Tuesday, January 18, 2011

3.7% inflation in the UK yoy

The latest figures out of the UK show inflation running at 3.7% yoy.  The UK has been diverging from the USA and the EURO currency area.  Both the USA and EURO are running below inflation targets.  In the case of the US dollar well below, even below 1% yoy in some months.  This means both the US and EU central banks have all the room in the world to print if needs be. 

But it appears the UK is not in a position to print with inflation at 3.7%.  They are still running a budget deficit of 12% of gdp, the coalition government has wisely stopped trying to cut the deficit.  Fortunately for the UK the debt to gdp ratio is still quite healthy at only 65% of gdp.  So they should have a few years left of room to maneuvre.

 

Monday, January 17, 2011

EU 27 car sales for 2010

From Acea:  http://www.acea.be/images/uploads/files/20110114_PRPC-FINAL-1012.pdf


Over twelve months in 2010, the EU* market for new passenger cars declined by 5.5%, with a total of 13,360,599 new units registered throughout the year.

VW Group:  2,831,000
PSA:  1,805,000
Renault/Nissan:  1,777,000
GM Group:  1,166,000
Ford:  1,082,000
Fiat/Chrysler:  1,057,000
BMW:  724,000
Daimler:  651,000
Hyundai/Kia:  604,000
Toyota:  567,000

That is 10 groups selling large volumes in Europe.  It shows how diverse the European auto market is.  I would say this market will consolidate over time.  If you think about it, this is a lot of duplication of effort on the engineering front.  And then there is rationalization of the factories.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Human disadvantage versus automation


One underlooked factor in the man vs. machine debate is 'uptime'.  A computer server or an industrial robot may have an uptime of for arguments sake 99%.  A week has 24*7=168 hours.  But a human being only works 8*5=40 hours.  And with 5 weeks vacation a year, 1 in every 10 days they are not there.  Sick leave adds another 2 weeks off a year.  Then there is maternity leave, and a growing issue is long term disability leave.  And I almost forgot statuatory holidays.

Finally a big time business leader I read said the average worker, 'works' 3 hours out of the 8 hour shift. 

So say a big box grocer is installing automatic checkout machines.  Its not just replacing one worker.  The store may be open 7am-10pm, 7 days a week.  That is 105 hours a week.  And would take at least 2.5 full time workers to cover.  And more like 3-4 once you count all the factors I mentioned.

An added and even less appreciated factor is the reduction in management costs to deal with this.  There is accounting, human resources and layers of management needed, to administer human related issues.  When you replace enough workers, you can also get rid of a great deal of the administration above them.

Humans also require facilities, such as more washrooms, office space, parking space, security systems and so on.  All of this can be reduced as the workforce gets reduced. 

Monday, January 10, 2011

How money get to people in the modern economy

Historically the free market was the mechanism by which money got into the hands of 'the masses'.  A worker worked on a mass assembly line with thousands of other workers, and the compensation from that job was enough to pay all the expenses for that worker.  All the food, housing, medical care and so on for him and his family.  And enough extra money to have some disposable income and help drive the economy.

Your average man stood on his own in many ways.  He was valueable to the production, and got a percentage of the value he added.  And a key point is because there was an overall shortage of workers in the economy through history, firms had to pay more than the firm down the street to attract and keep workers.  This shortage kept the pay of the worker as a large percentage of the value he was adding.  Of course it was never 100%, as there had to be room for the profit of the owners of the firm. 

But by 2010 that mechanism is breaking down in western nations.  There is a severe and growing oversupply of labour.  The firm does not have to pay wages higher than the firm down the street, it only has to pay the legal minimum wage.  The connection between the value being added and compensation has broken down.  You see workers who are fabulously productive, enabled by modern production technology, yet the wages are declining.  So you have situations in industries where pay of new workers is falling like 20% over the last decade, yet productivity at least doubling.

It is so bad that even with the huge productivity gains, now your average man could not mke enough money at the average job to support a family, and cover all the costs, housing, food, medical care, cars, appliances, utilities, dental care, etc.  People tried to keep up by first sending the wife to work, which delayed the crisis.. and then over the last decade going deeper into debt.

But even with that more and more it is the state which is picking up the bills.  The health care costs, housing, food stamps, pension costs, workers insurance and so on.  The state can do this far easier than most pundits realize, because the wealth is really there.  The wealth is the productivity increases which have been so powerful over the last few decades. 

In the USA in the last decade government combined local, state and federal has grown from under 35% of gdp, to 45% of gdp.  And looks set to grow each year now.  For more and more people they exist because the state pumps money their way.  And I believe this trend will continue, until the vast majority of people get the majority of their income from the state.. sometime mid century.

There is no other way, because few people are now needed in modern production.  And that number goes down each year.  And the same computing and robotics technology is moving into warehousing and eventually will go into retail.  It is also in the process of replacing most of the white colar workforce.  But back to that key point I mentioned, automation doesn't need to replace everyone to change the game.  It only has to create a permanent slack in the workforce, in order to destroy the bargaining position of workers.  Once that is done, the link between compensation and production is broken.  And at that point it requires the state to come in with stimulus money, in order for 'the market' to get enough money to buy said production.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

What 1% population growth means

Investments that might not make sense now, like a barely viable business on the outer suburbs can become incredible businesses in time with sustained population growth.  The same with land that is currently on the fringe of a city, if the city doubled in size, it may be on prime developable land.  This is how a lot of families have become very rich through time.

Lets look at the 4 big anglo-saxon nations and their population growth and what it means long run.

Canada:  34 million  (1%)
Australia:  22 million (1%)
United Kingdom: 62 million (0.5%)
America:  310 million  (1%)

Total:  428 million

In 2100, 90 years from now what the populations would be on this course:

Canada:  83 million
Australia:  54 million
United Kingdom:  97 million
America:  759 million

Total 2100:  993 million

Friday, January 7, 2011

US auto sales 2010

http://www.autoblog.com/2011/01/04/by-the-numbers-2010-the-year-after-that-really-bad-year-editi/

autoblog.com has a great monthly series where they track all the brands auto sales in the US.  This is their year end report.

The estimate is new car sales came in at 11.6 million units for 2010.  Up 11% from the depth of the recession in 2009.  The thought is 2011 could see 12.5 million to 13 million units sold.

GM: 2,215,000 (+6%)
Ford: 1,935,000 (+19%)
Nissan: 908,000 (+18%)
Chrysler/Fiat: 1,085,000 (+17%)
Honda: 1,230,000 (7%)
Toyota: 1,763,000 (-0.37%)

Hyundai/Kia:  894,000 (22%)

Together these 7 mass manufacturers accounted for 86% of the US auto sales.

China car market year end numbers coming out

http://www.chinacartimes.com/

Honda: 646,000 (+12%)
Ford: 582,000 (+40%)
Hyundai/Kia: 1,100,000
GM: 2,350,000 (+28%)
PSA: 375,000 (+38%)

Still to come among the mass manufacturers, Toyota, Nissan, VW.


Edit January 8th,

VW:  1,923,000 (+37%)
Toyota:  846,000 (19%) 

Edit January 10,

Nissan:  1,020,000 (+36%)


And the total for China for 2010 is in:  18,060,000 cars, up 32% for the year.