Thursday, October 6, 2011

How to finance and build a manufacturing base

I don't think our society yet has the will to really finance a manufacturing development.  I've been following China's rise closely for over 10 years now, and one of the interesting aspects is how they get into a new business.

Lets say for example Britain chose to manufacture train cars.  And for arguments sake it would take £20 billion in capital to develop 2 corporations to world competitive status.

You choose a city they are going to be based in.  The city and the banks then extend essentially unlimited credit to those 2 corporations to start setting up plant in the city.  Then the banks and city also need to finance a host of supplier manufacturers. 

Once you commit to having a certain business.. you have to go all the way.  If 5 years in you get weak willed, start having doubts and stop lending more money, then for sure you won't make it.  Once you are say £10 billion in.. you have to be willing to go the whole £20 billion, maybe more.

The thing is the rewards are also vast.  You might have to finance deep these companies for 10 years before they start making some real money.  Then you can pay back all the loans, plus interest, and have a huge industry in the city, that is a constant money machine.  As its a vast world out there to sell the product.  When you look at the GDP of the city, it is going to be be huge, because not only do you get the high level manufacturing, but you also get the supplier manufacturing, and the whole related sales and other support.

Say the industry ends up generating £5 billion a year in GDP for the city.  Well that is 50,000 jobs that pay £100,000 a year.

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