Wednesday, November 16, 2011

EU room to print

There is some cushions.  A big part of why the loans are going bad is the economy is in the tank and then some.  That means there is little to no credit expansion going on from private credit growth.  So whatever amount that was running at before the bust, that amount can be printed and put into the system each year to hit the same inflation rates as before.

Euro wide we are talking probably 3 trillion Euros a year. 

Secondly its hard to say how much bond buying they will have to do to stabilize these nations.  For example if Greece is rolling over high interest rate debt into 40 year, 4% bonds that the ECB starts buying, that is going to take huge strain off of Greece. 

Thirdly the EU can come in with stricter leverage controls on the private banks if the economy ever starts growing again to contain inflation on that side of the curve.
 
Also the EU can begin imposing tougher budget requirements on the member nations going forward.  Although in honesty in the long run I believe they will need a closer fiscal union to stabilize things.  Even when California's economy was nearing collapse they could rely on huge social security, medicaid, education, defense and so on spending coming in from the federal government, in fact 26% of the US GDP is federal spending - compare that to Europe where what 2% of EURO spending is the EU.  And an implicit view of bond buyers that at the end of the day the Federal government would back up the state debt.

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