Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Factors in the rising unemployment

Its hard to look at one industry in isolation because even if it falls to nothing in employment, if the cost of its service is much lower, presumably people in the economy have extra money than before and spend it elsewhere. 
But if you look at the economy as a whole it is blatantly obvious that we are losing jobs in net.  About 125,000 a quarter like clockwork for the last few years. 

The question then is why are we losing jobs in net. 
-There clearly is insane over-regulation that is choking off business
-There is the effects of globalization -although here libertarians argue that it cannot have a net effect because when we buy something from China in £, the Chinamen then have pounds they have to at some point use.  Whether it is buying British products, or investing capital in Britain.
-Technological job loss - this idea is just entering mainstream thought.  Before it was simply dismissed as Luddite paranoia.
-Monetary issues - This is the idea that the western world has latched onto.  That the job loss was from a lack of credit in the economy.  There is some truth to it as well.  But Britain's experience has really called into question this theory.  We managed to get into a strong inflation of 5% and monetary theory is that it should lead to overheating in the economy, but a low unemployment rate.  Yet the net job loss still ticked along at 125k a quarter.

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