Thursday, February 2, 2012

Big Pharma and diminishing returns

I've been saying for quite a few years now there is just no good drugs left to find. All the juicy oranges in the orchard have been picked already.

Big Pharma gave it a Herculean effort during the last decade.. in the face of finding fewer and fewer promising drug, they ramped research spending up to staggering amounts. However not many drugs were found.

Now Big Pharma had to admit the truth to themselves, and the completely logical thing to do is shut down most of their research. The big pharma companies will become distributors of generic drugs. Well the surviving companies which are left after they buy up the other companies. And generic drugs is a great and profitable business.

This is about the fifth paradigm of health technology that has been explored and then faced diminishing returns. Vaccines was an earlier one.. once they got vaccines for the big 5 killers of mankind, that accounted for about 99% of the deaths from contagious diseases.. there was not anywhere else to go. They have managed to make an industry out of chasing that last 1%.. but again diminishing returns.

No comments:

Post a Comment