Supercomputer projections from top500

This is the projected performance chart from the top500.  They track the top 500 supercomputers in the world, releasing the list every 6 months.  It has taken just about 4 years for every 10x increase in performance.  But even if it slows down to every 5 years, we are still talking rapid increase in performance.

In 2016 we would see a 20 petaflop system.  That is over the 10 petaflops the pharmacuetical companies said they need to do timely biological simulations at the cellular level.  Although the first system would be very expensive.  20 petaflops is the estimate that Ray Kurzweil has guestimated for the speed of the human brain.

In 2021 there would be a 200 petaflop system.  And in 2026 a 2 exaflop system.  Some of the major nations are already rumored to be aiming for an exaflop system by 2020.  Surely by the mid 2020's a 10 petaflop system would be relatively cheap for the pharmacuetical companies.