Saturday, December 17, 2011

How long until we see a dusting, polishing robot

In the confines of a controlled factory the dexterity of robots is now beyond any human. The Japanese auto industry surpassed what the finest german master craftsman could do in 2002-2003.. forcing the Germans to rush in robotics.

However in the real world robots still have a ways to go. The computing power to even walk around the room is huge. For example each aspect of a step the robot takes changes how the forces of gravity are acting on the robot, as it now is in a different position, plus the momentum is moving in directions. So it has to be able to think ahead. We do that automatically.

Our brain is estimated to do 20 million billion calculations a second by Ray Kurzweil. In the year 2000 a desktop computer reached about 1 billion calculations a second. In 2011 we probably have desktop computers around 500 billion calculations a second. Still 40,000 times out from what the human brain can do.

We will probably see human brain level desktop computers around the mid 2030's.

Where it gets bizarre is a decade later we will probably see desktop computers that have 500 times the brain power as a human brain.

For the task you are describing, sort of a mass produced consumer robot which can dust and polish, I would estimate 2040. Of course such a robot could easily be uploaded with other programs and other arm attachments so it could do nearly every manual job.

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