Thursday, February 3, 2011

Don't belive the Peak theories.

Peak oil, peak gas, peak uranium, peak phosphate, peak lithium, peak coal, peak food, etc.. they are popular online theories, but they are consistently wrong.  Basically they make a fundamental mistake in the idea that using today's technology extraction will peak by such and such a date.  Which is often true, for example in oil if the industry was still using technology from 1980 and only developing the type of fields developed in 1980, production probably would have peaked in about the year 2000.

So lets look at oil..

Global bpd production in 1980:  63.9 million
1990:  66.3 million
2000:  77.7 million
2009:  84.3 million

Does that look like its peaking?  I see solidly rising production. 

What about natural gas, there has been quite a bit of fear in the UK about the future of natural gas, because in many ways it is the primary energy source of our nation now.  It fuels 40% or more of electric generation and heats a growing percentage of houses.

Global output in trillion cubic feet:
1980:  53.3
1990:  73.7
2000:  88.3
2009:  106.4

Again I'm not seeing any peak there.  Instead solidly rising production.  What I do see is elites telling the average person to accept a much lower standard of living because allegedly teh world is running out resources.  (while the same elites live a bizarrely extravagant lifestyle). 

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