Saturday, February 26, 2011

Uk Leaders Nearing Zugzwang?

Its remarkable how the USA and the UK economies have diverged recently.  In the USA which allowed the housing collapse, inflation is at ~1%.  It is hovering at the 50 year low.  This after QE 1, and half way through QE 2.0.. and of course lowering interest rates to 0-0.25%, and running a budget deficit of 12% of gdp.  In addition the USA also has some nice GDP growth right now, running at around 3%. 
If needs be the federal reserve and treasury in the USA have huge room left to print and borrow money.  Like well into the trillions of dollars of room.  (Which they will need a lot of money to bail out states, and keep unemployment benefits going, and throw in some stimulus)

Meanwhile in the UK things really are looking bleak.  ~4% inflation right now, with it rising.  The economy shrinking at ~1% a year.  If inflation does keep rising the government will have to take steps to reign it in.. except they are in zugzwang, they can't reign it in, because the country is on the edge of a loan default death trap.   

Flashback early 2009.. Why I supported Brown's massive printing, was I noted if we allowed a cascading default on the loans, the UK economy would definately collapse.  See what happened with Ireland when they chose that path, and because they don't have a central bank to print the difference.  Meanwhile if we printed it *might* still lead to a collapse but the immediate collapse was avoided.  Then in the intervening time carry out a massive systemic reform.  (which not even the slightest reforms have been made).  The Coalition is instead debating mandating more gender equality on corporate boards.   

But now they face a dangerous situation.  If they keep printing now inflation could blow out of control.  If they don't keep printing, the falling economic activity would lead to a cascading default on loans.  I think in that situation the government will have to keep printing.. even if inflation was running at 30% a year.  This would inflate away the debts, and inflate away the pension promises.  (just lie about the real inflation for the purposes of indexing.)

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