Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Is belief in progress blind faith?

Is belief in progress blind faith when you do not know exactly how the progress will be achieved?

Let me give you an example with electrical production. Most on the left were predicting the world would produce less electricity in 2008 than in 1998. Because of finite resources running out. I looked at the long term average and simply projected it forward. Is it blind faith.. I'm not so sure, if electrical production grows at 2.7% a year, year after year(even with primitivists saying it cannot go up every year, including many esteemed intellectuals).. is it blind faith to guess another 2.7% growth for the coming year?

The ways in which we will increase production are unknowable from any point in history. How will computer engineers in 2025 produce a 50% increase in performance that year? I can take wild guesses, but I do not know. But I think it is wrong to say becaue we do not know how they will increase production then, to make the jump and say therefore they will not be able to.

In 1998 world electrical production was 13,663 billion kilowatt hours. I predicted my usual, a 2.7% rise in production per year. Because that is the long term historical average. So my prediction was for 2008 production to be 17,830 billion kilowatt hours. Back then everyone I told said it wouldn't happen, because of limited resources.

The numbers are out for 2008 now, the world production was 19,103 billion kwh.

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