Production in millions units from wikipedia. Passenger and commercial vehicles combined. Growth over previous year in brackets. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_industry_in_China
1992: 1.0
1999: 1.2
2000: 2.07
2001: 2.33 (12.6%)
2002: 3.25 (39.5%)
2003: 4.44 (36.6%)
2004: 5.07 (14.2%)
2005: 5.71 (12.6%)
2006: 7.28 (27.5%)
2007: 8.88 (22.0%)
2008: 9.35 (5.3%)
2009: 13.83 (47.9%)
Last year I predicted 2010 sales would grow to 17.5 million unit. I simply took the last 9 year average of 24.2% growth and added that to the 2009 total, which came to 17.2 million units. Then because I was bullish I added a little bit.
According to Xinhua sales for the first 11 months of 2010 were 16.4 million units. That puts them on pace for 17.89 million units in 2010. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/business/2010-12/09/c_13642345.htm
2010: 17.89(est) (29.4%)
So that brings the 10 year average growth rate to 24.7%. So I will guess 24.7% growth for 2011, which would bring 2011 sales to..
2011: 22.31(my guess)
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