Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Technological progress versus transformative nature of applications

I generally agree the impact of technology has not been as transformative over the last 30 years compared to some eras, like the unbelievable advances with electrification and motorized vehicles and equipment.

I think the progress of technology is still going at pace, just it has to get applications that are transformative.  For example I believe we will see human level AI robots by 2040.. that would be bizarrely transform society.

Virtual reality/virtual worlds are having a large social impact already.  Sooner or later I think they will lead to a monumental transformation in society.  Already for millions of people their World of Warcraft life mean more to them than their real life.  The transformation will be when a majority of people place more importance on a virtual life than a real one.  And its coming sooner or later, as I have argued in the long run the virtual world has absolute advantages.

Health sciences is another.  There is notable achievements over the last 40 years, but certainly nothing has transformed society like vaccines, antibiotics, public sanatation, better nutrition.  However with stem cells, gene therapy, nanomedicine as these mature in the coming decades, we could see radical advances.  Like starting to rejuvinate older people to a youthful state.

Peter Thiel recently argued that there is defaults on pensions and investments going downhill because technological advance has not been as fast as anticipated 20 years ago. 

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